"Protest Votes" demoralize Biden and Trump in the presidential primary
Even though President Joe Biden and Former President Donald Trump are the front-runners in both major party presidential contests, their respective parties have yet to unite behind them. But as the primary results indicate, Trump's problems are more serious.
A sort of protest vote in the four primaries on Tuesday demoralized both men, but Trump's numbers point to a more difficult challenge for the Republican in the fall: double-digit percentages of GOP primary voters supported former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who withdrew from the race nearly a month ago.
That was predictable and not very significant in the blue states of New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where Trump has almost no chance of winning in the fall. However, the outcomes in hotly contested Wisconsin point to a vulnerability for Trump in a state that might determine the outcome of the November election.
In Wisconsin, Trump secured 79% of the Republican primary vote, while Haley secured 13% of the vote and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who withdrew from the campaign in January, received 3% of the vote. The remaining votes went to "unrestricted" delegates, which included software entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie.
If voters are only sending a message or making the most of their final chance to support their first choice this year, that won't be a problem for Trump.
However, additional polling suggests that Haley supporters are not following Trump's lead. According to a recent Emerson College survey, Haley voters broke for Biden over Trump, 63% to 27%. Additionally, exit polls conducted in California, North Carolina, and Virginia after Super Tuesday revealed that 80% to 95% of Haley supporters said they would be "dissatisfied" if Trump were to win the nomination.
In Wisconsin, Biden also felt some sort of protest vote, albeit not as much. Approximately 89% of Democratic primary voters supported the incumbent president, 8% supported "uninstructed," which gives delegates the freedom to select whoever they want at the DNC, and 3% supported Minnesota congressman Rep. Dean Phillips, who has halted his presidential campaign.
Like in other states, the "unrestricted" vote is viewed by many as a protest of Biden's Gaza policy. It remains unclear if those voters will abstain from voting, support Trump, or cast ballots for Biden in the fall.
However, Biden defeated Trump on Tuesday in Wisconsin's total raw vote count. Biden received 506,969 votes in the Democratic primary while Trump received 472,227 votes in the GOP primary. For Biden, who won Wisconsin in 2020 by just over 10,000 votes, that is a positive indication.
Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Ben Wikler said in a statement, "Tonight's vote was both an affirmation of Biden and a rejection of Trump – who personally campaigned in Green Bay tonight, where he reminded voters of the threat he poses to our democracy and repeated his baseless, foul lies about his 2020 loss." Democrats also gained control of the Green Bay City Council, which was previously divided 6–6 among the parties but is now controlled by Democrats 7–5.
According to polls, Wisconsin's race is getting closer. In polls conducted earlier this year, Trump led by single digits; however, a Wall Street Journal study published this week showed that the two men are tied with 46% of the vote, with Biden barely ahead when third-party candidates are included.
