Game Notes 10 Things to Remember After the Patriots' Week 15 Loss to the Chiefs
Foxborough, Massachusetts — The Patriots lost to the Chiefs, the defending champions, 27-17 at Gillette Stadium on Sunday because they were unable to sustain their momentum.
In summary, we gained little new knowledge about these two teams beyond what we already knew. While the Patriots' narrative is on the organization's top-down future, Kansas City is honing its execution in anticipation of another Super Bowl run. From that perspective, every player in this game is exactly who we believed them to be. Not even a diminished Kansas City team could compare to New England as a team.
Based on the team's performance in the previous two games, quarterback Bailey Zappe and the Patriots' offensive scheme are not sustainable. Zappe has guided the offense to 31 points, 18 first downs, and four touchdown passes on 13 offensive possessions in the last two first halves. But the last two weeks have been a different story in the second half.
The Patriots have scored seven points with six first downs, two interceptions, and a total of nine punts on 14 offensive possessions during the last two half. With Zappe in the pocket instead of Mac Jones, the offense is a more entertaining product to watch. Nevertheless, as soon as the Pats depart from the opening screenplay, everything abruptly stops.
The Chiefs were positioned on the Patriots' own seven-yard line when Zappe made a poor interception on Sunday, which caused the game to collapse. After that, the offense punted the ball back to the Chiefs on the next drive, and in the subsequent 13 minutes of play in the third quarter, Kansas City scored 17 points without a response. Zappe deserves respect for owning up to his mistakes in the second half.
All the blame, as corny as it may sound, rests with the quarterback. "Everything is on me," Zappe stated to Patriots.com. "I believe that when you watch the movie tomorrow, you'll notice a lot of elements that, perhaps, could be made into a larger play if I just did things a little bit differently. As it's my fault, it immediately affects me. All I have to do is improve."
The quarterback for the Patriots noted that small errors built up in the second half, citing a breakdown in coverage during a corner blitz and a missed read. Of course, there are other factors at play as well, as the Patriots' inability to stay up with the Chiefs cannot be solely attributed to the quarterback. The Patriots, for instance, committed four costly errors that cost them points in the game: Jalen Reagor's 46-yard return on the first kickoff, which was overturned by a holding call on special teams star Brenden Schooler; Demario Douglas' infrequently called face mask; Hunter Henry's touchdown, which was overturned by an offensive holding call; and a forced fumble, which was overturned by a holding call on CB Alex Austin.
Those are hard to overcome momentum killers while playing the Chiefs, who are headed to the playoffs. For Zappe to be regarded as a strong starting option for the 2024 campaign, he must begin putting together full performances for four quarters.
An update on #TheTank before we go on to observations: the Patriots continue to hold the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft while getting closer to the top pick. With three games left in the regular season, Carolina (2-12) is just one win ahead of New England (3-11) following the Panthers' victory against the Falcons.
Following the Patriots' loss to the Chiefs at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, which dropped them to 3-11 on the season, here are ten observations:
1. Influential Game Play Bailey Zappe's 16-yard touchdown pass to tight end Hunter Henry on a fourth-and-two in the second quarter is presented by Enel.
If this were Chiefs.com, we would open with a touchdown pass from Patrick Mahomes to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, which was completed in six yards, demonstrating why Mahomes is the best improviser in the NFL.
The Patriots, however, were fighting back against Kansas City over a portion of the first half. A Mahomes interception in the second quarter gave them a 10-7 lead. Head coach Bill Belichick decided to go for it on an aggressive fourth down after New England went on a ten-play touchdown drive prior to the pick-three. Early in the game, Belichick decided to forgo a 33-yard field goal attempt down 7-zip in order to maximize points on a red zone drive.
The 4 to 85 connection is back.@baileyzappe04 | @Hunter_Henry84
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/wW8yHeOhQQ
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) December 17, 2023
The Chiefs matched the heavy personnel grouping and run formation (TE Pharaoh Brown at fullback) with base defense as the Patriots lined up in a three-tight end package. Owing to TE Hunter Henry's good matchup against a linebacker, Zappe's go-to target in the red zone, offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien activates play-action. Henry has advantageous leverage against a single-high defense thanks to the run fake, and Zappe advances the ball off a covered read in the flat to Henry's corner route for the touchdown.
"Hunter is an excellent receiver and tight end. "He is capable of almost anything you ask of him," Zappe remarked. "I feel like no matter what they do versus Hunter, I feel like it's a mismatch."
Along with putting enough touch on the ball to place the throw perfectly, Zappe's ability to come off his first read and calmly hit Henry over the top in that situation is good quarterbacking.
2. Evaluating Patriots QB Bailey Zappe's Performance in Loss to the Chiefs
It was a tale of two halves for the second-year quarterback, who has done some good things mixed in with too much inconsistency to catch The Fever.
Starting with the positives, Zappe generated +0.10 expected points added per play in the first half. Overall, Zappe has been far more agile in the pocket than Mac, keeping plays alive and stepping into throws with more confidence to execute the offense. There's no question that Zappe is a more natural playmaker at the position who livens things up offensively.Without a doubt, Zappe is a more adept playmaker at the position who adds offensive vigor.
One of the two cover-zero blitzes Kansas City ran in the game, the Chiefs apply all-out pressure here on third down. After the Chiefs successfully cover the routes to Zappe's left by banjoing the switch release, Zappe turns to his sole option, which is to match up DeVante Parker against L'Jarius Sneed one-on-one. Additionally, Zappe has the foresight to find Parker open for a back-shoulder pass because Snead has inside press-man leverage. With Zappe at center, the Pats get plays like that.
Right now, Zappe's problems are with being consistent with his readings after the snap and the pre-snap chess match period. The quarterback for the Patriots accepted responsibility for the offense's mishandling of a corner blitz, which led to a sack by Snead. Zappe added that on the fourth down play late in the fourth quarter, he ought to have gone for the flat route instead of slanting against inside leverage. Plus, Zappe needs to throw the ball away there for the second-half interception since it is a pass he just cannot make. It was never accessible.
The quarterback in his second year is still lacking in his ability to analyze the game mentally. On Sunday, Kansas City's blitzing produced three sacks and eight quarterback pressures. Usually, if the quarterback is playing well with protections and quick reads, the pressures could be avoided. Zappe's physicals are ordinary, so even though he's unquestionably a more elusive gunslinger type than Mac, he needs to be more consistent and detailed to become an NFL starter.
3. The Patriots' defense loses to the Chiefs in their chess match. QB Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid
Given the current status of these two teams, the Patriots heavyweight bout versus Reid, Mahomes, and the Chiefs offense was quite fitting: the Pats competed, and Kansas City shot itself in the foot, but the Chiefs had the upper hand.
In the first half of the game, New England's man coverage percentage (67.4%) was at its highest point in the season. Because of Mahomes's off-script brilliance and TE Travis Kelce's ability to identify zone voids, the Pats prefer to play man against these two zone-busters. The Pats used a variety of coverages to keep Kelce in check, and their overall man coverage rate of 48.8% was their third-highest in a game this season (five catches, 28 yards).
Reid countered the man strategies with constant pressure on Mahomes early on by throwing 13 passes beyond the line, even though the Pats were playing a lot of man coverage. With Mahomes averaging 8.1 yards per attempt (105 total yards) on passes behind the line of scrimmage, the Chiefs used screen after screen to counteract the Pats' aggressive rush strategy.
Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire completed the biggest throw completion of the game, gaining 48 yards on a screen pass. In order to force the opposition to overcommit, Kansas City employed motion as window decoration in the backfield and safety While covering the Chiefs running back in man coverage, Kyle Dugger lost sight of Edwards-Helaire. Nobody is on that side of the field to stop CEH because he is Dugger's man.
In addition, the Chiefs employed a single-wing configuration close to the goal line for an Andy Reid special and rub routes to the backs out of the backfield (McKinnon TD pass). The Patriots utilized more zone coverages in the second half, and Mahomes took advantage of his mobility to lengthen plays and shift the coverage structure in order to target receivers who were open.
Even though the Patriots defense forced another turnover on a fumble recovery that was overturned by a penalty and intercepted Mahomes twice, Mahomes proved to be too much in the end. In this game, Mahomes produced +0.04 EPA per play and completed over 300 yards of passing, as the Chiefs offense scored more points than their 22.5 point average for the season. Yes, after Zappe's interception, the Chiefs scored a touchdown on a short field. Nevertheless, the Chiefs' offense is not very good, and at 34 years old, Kelce appears to be tiring. When playing against top quarterbacks, the defense must step up.
4. Novice LB In the Chiefs game, Marte Mapu records his first career intercept in splash play.
Positively, rookie LB/S Marte Mapu gave the Patriots a key play in the game that, from this angle, had been in the works for eight months.
As many of you are aware, ever since the Patriots selected Marte Mapu in the third round, I have been demanding that he be used as a linebacker. Rather, the Pats are mostly focused on turning Mapu into a hybrid safety, similar to Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger. The hybrid safeties and a conventional off-ball linebacker have a lot in common.But we expected to see the Patriots develop more athletically at the second level at inside linebacker. The Pats were hoping to see the same thing when they selected Mapu in the spring of last year. The rookie provided Patriots.com with the following breakdown of his interception:
.@5Marte_'s first NFL INT 👏
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/6Zwi9Wlzxr
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) December 17, 2023
"Right there, I was reading the quarterback's eye. I watched him as he progressed and ultimately saw him reach his check-down. I didn't think he would escape, but given the play's timing, you really don't have many options at that point until you stretch it."
Mapu spent eight of his fifteen snaps in the box, but his quickness and football sense might make him a valuable member of this defense in the future.
5. DL Third Season of Stellar Sees Christian Barmore Maintaining His Domination
Christian Barmore, a defensive tackle with the Patriots, may now formally be moved from the "risers" list to the "he's just a good football player" list in addition to Mapu's key takeaway. Barmore led the Patriots defense with two run stuffs, had a sack, and tied for the team lead in quarterback pressures (4). Barmore's reflexes, upper-body strength, and first-step explosiveness are making him a game-changer. Barmore delivered his best performance as a professional against the Chiefs, according to teammate Davon Godchaux. Godchaux is hard to argue with there.
6. Losses for Patriots O-Line Several Depth Layers, Blitz Pressure a Big Issue
Starting left tackle Trent Brown (ankle/hand/illness) was not used in the game, backup left tackle Conor McDermott left with a head injury, and starting left guard Cole Strange left with a knee injury, indicating the offensive line's ongoing health problems. Strange was called out right away after leaving the field on the cart, which is never a good sign.
